Land Transfer Tax poll cross-tabulation findings

Posted Friday, September 28, 2007

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Pittsboro, NC - Here are the cross-tabulation findings of the Chatham County Land Transfer Tax poll.

Respondents: 401 registered voters; none work for news media or for public official or campaign
Gender:* 55% female; 45% male Age: 73% age 51 and older
Race:* 13% non-white; 87% white Own/Rent: 92% own home; 6% rent
Children up to 18: 84% had 0; 13% had 1 or 2; just 1% had 3+ children
Years in County: 54% 20 years+; 22% 10-20 years; 11% 5-10 years; 12% less than 5 years
Household Income: 22% below $50,000; 17% $50,000-$75,000; 17% $75,000-$100,000; 14% $100,000-$150,000; nearly 0% for those over $150,000; 29% no answer
*NOTE: Was not asked but information was already available in database

Geographic Distribution by Precinct Clusters (based on voter records):
Pittsboro: 13%
Siler City (East and West): 15%
Albright, Hadley, Hickory Mountain: 10%
New Hope, Three Rivers, Oakland, 10%
North, West & East Williams: 23%
Bonlee, Bennett, Goldston, Harpers Crossroads: 12%
Carolina Meadows, Bynum, Manns Chapel: 15%

GENERAL MOOD OF THE PUBLIC

Q3: County Direction:
• Just 26% think the county is headed in the wrong direction, which is a generally positive response for this type of survey.
• Of the 36% who think the county is headed in right direction, 50% are land transfer tax supporters while 25% are undecided or need more info….and 70% live east of Pittsboro.
• 60% of those who think the county is on the wrong track oppose the land transfer tax, but 30% would support it
• Those with mixed feelings are the largest group undecided on the land transfer tax.
• Younger people (age 35 or less) were the most optimistic age group, but were the lowest % of respondents, which reflects a long-term national trend related to young voters.

Q4: Development/Growth:
• A clear majority of respondents think that the county is either growing too fast (43%) or just right (37%), with only 8% saying too slow. Even a large % of strong opponents of the transfer tax think it is growing too fast. Generally, the county is not as split on this issue as might be expected.
• Of those who think the county is growing too fast, 61% support the land transfer tax and a majority (55%) live in the northeast.
• The Southeast has the largest group of those who think the growth rate is just right, while the central area tends to be more split between too fast and just right. The western part of the county has more of the respondents in the “too slow” camp, but it still has more than twice as many who believe the county is growing too fast, which which may be an unexpected finding.
• Young people (under age 35) and white people were more likely to say about right, while those age 35-50 and 65+ were more likely to be in the “too fast” camp. Race and gender were not major factors.

Q5: Top 5 Issues (open-ended)
• Water/sewer, education and growth/development are basically tied at the top with about 14% each. Taxes and jobs are next with 10% each.
• Water/sewer was most often selected by age 65+, those living in the northeast, and supporters of the land transfer tax.
• Education was a major concern for those under age 50 and those in the northeast and central Chatham.
• Growth/development was a major concern for those under age 35, in the northeast and transfer tax supporters.
• This question did have major race differences in that non-whites placed taxes and jobs at the top and few were concerned about schools or growth/development.
• The western part of the county also ranked jobs as a top issue, while the southwest also ranks taxes fairly high.
• Strong opponents of the land transfer tax had a wider range of issues that they were concerned about.

Q6: Tax Rate Too High/Low
• While the results may seem negative, it’s not unusual to see a somewhat 50/50 split on this issue.
• As noted in previous question, those rating taxes as too high tend to be non-white and live in the west. Those age 51-64 are also more likely to be in this camp as are those most opposed to the land transfer tax, but supporters tend to think taxes are too low or just right.
• Those who think taxes are just right or too low tend to be white, under age 51 and live in the northeast.

TRANSFER TAX QUESTIONS
Q7: Familiarity with Land Transfer Tax
• It is fairly well split 50/50 between those with high/moderate familiarity and those with little or no familiarity.
• Those who are very familiar with it tend to be white, male and age 35+ and also are fairly well split between opponents and supporters. They also tend to live in the northeast and are strong supporters of the land transfer tax.
• The “somewhat familiar” group is younger (under age 35) and white. They are somewhat more likely to be from the northwest and central areas and are somewhat more opposed to the land transfer tax.
• Those who are least familiar or knew nothing about it are non-white, female and live in the west and southeast.

Q8: Oppose/Support Land Transfer Tax Based on Existing Knowledge
• These results initially look fairly negative, until compared with the question below. The opponents’ positions were more decided at this point than the supporters’ positions.
• Just 19% say they would strongly or somewhat support the tax, while 42% oppose or strongly oppose it.
• There are almost as many undecided folks and those needing more information (38%) as there are opponents.
• Supporters tend to be the youngest (under 35) and oldest groups (65+), white, and live in the northeast.
• Opponents tend to be age 35-65, male, and live in the western/central areas, especially the southwest.
• Men tend to have more entrenched opinions than women.
• Non-whites and women are, by far, the groups most in need of more information.

Q9: Oppose/Support Land Transfer Tax After Brief Description
• The most important news here is that just a small amount of factual information made a substantial difference—support for the tax doubled from 19% to 39%, with most new support from those needing more information.
• The % of opponents decreased a bit from 42% to 37%. Undecided did not change.
• Support increased in all age groups, with major support from those under age 51. Support from non-white voters also shifted considerably so that there is no major race difference.
• The northeast solidified its support and the southeast & central areas had more supporters than opponents.
• The opposition in the west stayed about the same, but did pick up a few more supporters there.
• Non-white voters and women still are the major groups needing more information and tend to move into the support category when they get it.

Q10-A Information: LTT Only Paid One Time at Closing
• This had positive effect (36%) as compared to negative effect (21%), a net gain of 15%, but made the strong supporters & opponents more entrenched in their positions.
• It had the biggest positive impact on younger voters and those living in the northeast and southeast.
Q10-B Information: LTT Based on Value of Property
• Surprisingly, this information did not have as much impact as expected, given that it relates to ability to pay. For the most part, this did not make much difference except that opponents/supporters more entrenched.
Q10-C Option: Revenues Dedicated to Schools
• This had a significant positive impact on support, with a net gain of 22%. A total of 47% said they were more likely to support the tax under this option. This affected both strong, moderate supporters, undecided voters and some of the moderate opponents.
• Surprisingly, even though schools were not a top county issue for non-white voters, this option had a significant impact on their support for the tax…67% said they would be much more likely to support it.
• This also helped build more support in the western/central areas of the county and further solidified support in the eastern areas.
Q10-D Option: Revenues Dedicated to Schools & Water/Sewer
• This came very close to a tie with the option above, with a net gain of 21%. This undecided/no difference group fell to 26%, as compared to the 47% more likely to support the tax under this option.
• This had more of an impact on those under age 35 and, again, non-white voters, with 67% saying they would be much more likely to support this scenario. It also reduced the female opponents and had the most positive effect on undecided voters of any option.
• One of the more interesting findings is that this option had a more positive impact on the western half of the county than just schools alone.
• Just as noted above, this option had a significant impact on non-white voter support for the tax…67% of nonwhites said they would be much more likely to support the tax.
Q10-E Option: Revenues Dedicated to Schools & Parks
• This option had an overall negative impact, with 38% saying that would be less likely to support the tax under this scenario, while only 32% would be more likely to support it. Opponents were especially turned off.
Q10-F Option: Reduce Property Tax Rate by One Penny
• This option had very minimal positive impact on respondents overall. Mostly just further entrenched positions.
Q10-G, H & I Options: Reduce or Eliminate Education Impact Fees
• All of the options here had significantly more negative impact than positive impact, regardless of whether or not the fees were reduced by $500, $1000 or eliminated entirely. The net loss ranged from 11%-14%.
• Surprisingly, opponents were much less likely to change their mind with any of these options, but we lost a large group of supporters with any of these options.
• The higher levels of opposition to reducing impact fees correlate with the same group who think the county is growing too fast or about right.

ELECTION QUESTIONS
Q11: Likely to Vote in November Town Elections
• Even though the question noted that only towns were having elections this fall, 91% said that they were very likely to vote in the upcoming election. Yes, only about 30% of respondents live in town precincts.
• It is typical for people to over-report voting habits. But this also reflects a lack of public understanding about eligibility to vote in town elections and/or thinking that some state/federal races may be on the ballot then.

Q12: Likely to Vote in November with Transfer Tax on Ballot
• The real paradox here is those polled showed a drop to 81% in “very likely to vote” in this election if the land transfer tax was on the ballot.
• This decrease appears across all parts of the county, except the declines in the southeast and central areas were minimal. But, interestingly, the largest overall drop in interest in voting was in the southwest (down 20%), which is more opposed to the tax, while the area of greatest support (northeast) dropped by just 9%.
• The ones who appear to be less likely to vote are those under age 65, with the youngest categories impacted the most and they tend to be LTT supporters. Those over 65 did not change much.
• These results send mixed signals about whether more proponents or opponents would vote or not vote in Nov., but it may indicate that this is not a motivating election issue for most groups of voters.

Q13: Likely to Support Land Transfer Tax in November
• The major finding here is that more people moved into the undecided or not sure category (35%), up from 22% when compared to the Question 9 above.
• There was also a decline in those who would support it from 39% to 27%, but very little change in opponents, which means that their positions are more entrenched.
• Of those who changed their minds about supporting it, most appear to be from the southeast and northwest, which is also a mixed message.
• Gender did not matter in this issue, but non-whites, the youngest voters (under 35) and age 51-65 declined in terms of support.

Q14: Likely to Vote on Liquor by the Drink on the Ballot But No Date Provided
• 91% said that they were likely to vote if this were on the ballot within the next year, especially opponents of the land transfer tax, but strong/moderate supporters of the LTT also increased significantly.
• Interestingly, both the most supportive area (northeast) and most opposed areas (northwest and southwest) are the ones less interested in voting on this issue, while it is appears to peak interest in southeast & central areas.
• Non-whites were notably less interested in voting on this issue than whites.
• An interesting paradox is that the under 35 group were much more interested in voting on the land transfer tax (100% very likely) than this issue (78% very likely), even though young people are generally supportive of both.

Q15: Likely to Vote in Nov. on Liquor by the Drink
• Like the LTT vote, this option also saw a small decline (from 91% to 89%) in those likely to vote on this issue if on the November ballot, but more people moved from very likely to vote to somewhat more likely to vote category.
• Those less likely to vote include the age 51 to 65 group and females, with non-whites somewhat less likely to vote. Geographic region was not a major factor, but some reduced interest in the southwest.
• It also did not seem to correlate strongly with those who support or oppose the land transfer tax, except for a small decline in those most opposed to the tax.

Q16: Likely to Support Liquor by the Drink When on Ballot
• The main finding here is that more people already have made up their minds on this issue than the land transfer tax and have stronger feelings about it, which is not surprising.
• 48% indicate support for it, 33% oppose it, and 18% undecided/need more information.
• A sizeable percentage (59%) of those who strongly support the land transfer tax also would at least somewhat support liquor by the drink, but 21% of them oppose it. 50% of those strongly opposed to the LTT would at least somewhat support liquor by the drink, but this group also has the largest share of opponents to liquor by the drink.
• The supporters tend to be white, male, under age 35, and live in the northeast, southeast and central areas.
• The strongest opponents tend to be over 65, non-white, female and live in the southwest and northwest.
• However, it is important to note that those with moderate positions on the land transfer tax tend to have fairly wide-ranging opinions on liquor by the drink.
• Polls have also traditionally shown that votes on liquor issues tend to bring out voters who do not necessarily vote on other issues…and it is hard to know who will show up.

Q17: Likely to Vote in May Primary
• Not surprising, 97% said that they are very likely or likely to vote in this election, which will include primaries for local, state and national elections. The results below are compared to the November election WITH the land transfer tax on the ballot.
• An interesting finding is that those somewhat supportive of the land transfer tax and those most opposed to it showed more interest in the May primaries, when compared to a fall land transfer vote.
• The only major age-related factor was that those age 35-51 were much more likely to vote in the May election, but the two older categories also increased. Gender and race were not significant factors.
• As to areas of the county, the greatest overall increase in interest for May elections is in the southwest and northwest, which generally opposes the transfer tax. Uniquely, the southeast indicated a bit less interest in the May primaries, while the northeast and central areas did not change substantially.
• This again presents a mixed message on timing for the land transfer tax vote.

OTHER DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS
Q18: Household Income Levels
• A sizeable group (29%) did not share this information, but the major supporters of the transfer tax tend to be those in the lowest income bracket and those over $100,000.
• The lowest income group ($50,000 or less) was the most highly represented in the poll and leaned somewhat toward supporting the tax (36% pro/30% con), but more than a third need more information or are not decided. This group traditionally is harder to get to the polls.
• The $75,000-$100,000 group has the largest group of opponents (38% pro/50% con), with about 12% undecided/need more info.
• The $100,000-$150,000 group had the greatest overall support (42% pro/28% con), but most of it was in the somewhat supportive category and 20% are undecided/need more info.
• The $150,000+ category was under-represented with 2 respondents, but it is likely that 1/3 to 1/2 of those refusing to give their income are in this category.
• The unknown income group was split on the issue (38% pro/36% con) and 26% undecided/need more info.

Q19: Rent/Own Home
• Renters, who tend to be younger, were fairly well split between supporting the tax (46%) or undecided/need more info (46%), but they were a fairly small percentage of respondents (6%).
• Homeowners tended to be over age 35 and are fairly evenly split between supporting and opposing the tax, with 22% undecided or need more information.

Q20: Children Under 18 Living in the Home
• Surprisingly, 84% of respondents have no children under 18 in the home and this included more than half of those age 35-50 and more than 91% of those over 51. This group is so large that it was the strong majority of respondents for every category related to the land transfer tax, including opponents and supporters.
• Those with no children under 18 are fairly evenly split between opposing and supporting the tax, but the opponents are more strongly opposed. 25% are undecided/need information.
• Larger families (3 or more children) were just 1% of the respondents.

Q21: Length of Residency in County
• Despite the recent growth in the county, 76% of respondents have lived in the county for 10+ years.
• 50% of the most recent arrivals are seniors, but the seniors also are the largest percent of those with 20+ years in the county. The 35-51 group has the most diverse length of time in the county.
• 74% of non-white residents reported being here 20+ years, as compared to 54% of white residents.
• The northeast has the most newcomers (less than 5 years), while the northwest and southeast also had a moderate share of newcomer.
• The southwest and central areas had very large percentages of those living here 10+ years.
• The biggest group of supporters of the land transfer tax are those who have lived in the county 3-5 years, with moderate support from those who have been here 10-20 years or less than 3 years.
• The long-term (20+ years) and 5-10 year residents tend to be the strongest opponents.

Q22: Age of Respondents
• Because the number of respondents age 51+ is much higher than other age groups, they show up as the highest percentage just about all of the categories of support for the LTT.
• While the youngest group is overall more supportive, they were a small % of respondents and often don’t vote.

CODED INFORMATION: NOT BASED ON QUESTIONS ASKED
Q23: Race of Respondents (based on voter records)
• Overall, non-white respondents were under-represented, which is a common problem with phone surveys.
• The major finding here is that non-white voters tended to be more supportive once they had some information about the land transfer tax, but quite a few still need more information. This group is somewhat harder to get to the polls historically.
• White respondents had more diverse opinions about the tax and a notable undecided/need information group.

Q24: Gender
• The main finding here is that women are split on the issue, but tend to be more supportive when information is provided. They have a much larger group of undecided/need more information.

Q25: Commissioner Districts (current districts, not new ones)
• The results track about the same as the precinct groups below, but 51% of the strong supporters of the LTT and 31% of moderate supporters coming from District 1, which also had the largest % of respondents at 33%.
• Because District 1 had so many respondents, they were often the largest share of supporters, opponents and undecideds.
• However, District 4 and 5 clearly had more of the opponents, with District 3 respondents somewhat split.
• District 5 is the only one with a fairly small group of those needing more information.

Q26: Precinct Clusters (based on voter records)
• Towns with contested elections this fall show very different results for support of the land transfer tax. Pittsboro showed 46% supporting the land transfer tax, 31% opposed and 13% undecided, whereas Siler City is more solidly in the opponent camp with 55% of West Siler opposed and 45% of East Siler City opposed (the latter has a large group of undecided as well).
• Albright and Hickory Mountain reported basically the same results, with a strong group of opponents 67% in both. But Hadley leaned more toward supporting the tax (41% pro/36% con) but 24% undecided/need info.
• West Williams and East Williams were two of the strongest support bases for the tax, with 50-59% in favor and 25% opposed. East Williams has a fairly large group of undecided at 25%. However, North Williams is the anomaly in the northeast with 50% opposed, 33% in favor and 17% undecided/need more info. These 3 precincts were 23% of the total poll results, more than any other cluster.
• Manns Chapel is split 50/50 but has 30% undecided/need info. Bynum has a large % of undecided/need info (40%), but does have 50% supporting it versus 10% opposed. Carolina Meadows is the most decisive, with 80% supporting and 20% opposed.
• New Hope has 50% strong supporters and 38% strong opponents, with 13% undecided. Oakland has 60% undecided/need info, but those who did state a position are divided 50/50. Three Rivers has more confirmed opponents (55%) and the supporters are not strongly supportive (36%), with only 9% without a position.
• The last cluster is the most opposed generally. Bennett had 33% firmly opposed, but 67% undecided (the most of any precinct). Bonlee had 29% strongly supportive, 43% strongly opposed and 29% undecided. Goldston had 30% overall supportive, 45% opposed (most are strongly opposed) camp and 25% undecided. Harpers Crossroads also was very decisive, with 25% strong supporters and 75% strong opponents.

Q27: Party Affiliation (based on voter records)
• 54% of respondents are registered Democrats, 26% are Republicans and 20% unaffiliated.
• Democrats are fairly strongly in the support category, but Republicans are even more solidly in the opposed category. Unaffiliated voters lean toward supporting the transfer tax, but it is a margin of just 5%.